In 2026, Hungary will hold parliamentary elections. For the first time since 2010, Viktor Orbán’s grip on power is at risk, even though the country today borders on an autocratic system. The election year coincides with the 70th anniversary of Hungary’s uprising against the Soviet Union. Who will prevail this time?
Since 2014, Orbán’s power has rested on two pillars: economic stability and a geopolitical balancing act between East and West. But since 2022 both pillars have weakened simultaneously. The economy is in recession, inflation remains among the highest in Europe, and the forint remains under persistent pressure. At the same time, the EU is more unified than at any point in recent history. Orbán’s model and strategy may therefore have reached their limits. This year’s election will be consequential.
Orbán’s Model and Strategy May Have Reached Their Limits
Orbán’s political wave has receded. For the first time in a decade, the opposition stands strong, and in particular a former Fidesz member, Péter Magyar, has seen a dramatic rise in support. Among the Hungarian population, 62% now hold a negative view of Russia, and only 2% believe Russia shares Hungary’s interests. Even among Fidesz voters, more than twice as many view Germany positively as Russia.
Three structural shifts have changed the political dynamics:
- Real incomes fell
- Inflation surged
- EU funds were frozen
Together, these developments have created a situation in which Orbán can no longer compensate voters economically for his autocratic choices.
The Break with the EU Through Veto Diplomacy …
Hungary has repeatedly blocked EU support for Ukraine, EU sanctions packages, and decisions on enlargement. In response, the EU has frozen up to 90% of Hungary’s structural funds.
Orbán has long understood that he cannot leave the EU without triggering sovereign default:
- 80% of Hungary’s exports go to the EU
- the country receives €5 billion annually in EU transfers
- without access to the single market, the economy would collapse within a few years
Orbán has therefore used the veto as a political weapon—a form of transactional membership. But Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Poland’s shift toward Donald Tusk in 2023, the EU’s new fiscal framework, and changes to budgetary procedures have cost Orbán most of his allies inside the Union.
… Has Made the Economy Fragile and Orbán’s Options Narrow
Politically, Hungary is now isolated in the EU. At the same time, the country is in a stabilised but deeply fragile crisis, with one of the highest inflation rates in the EU, the highest sovereign interest rates at an average of 6.5%, debt-service costs of 4.3% of GDP, and a credit rating of Baa2 with negative outlook, i.e. moving toward junk.
Hungary’s financial situation is therefore acute and troubling. The country stands precisely where debt spirals often begin: high interest rates, a weak currency, declining industry, and political isolation. Any direct attempt to leave the EU would trigger an immediate and severe economic collapse.
Orbán’s strategy has therefore shifted inward. In March 2025, the Heritage Foundation (behind the U.S. and MAGA “Project 2025”) met with the Polish group Ordo Iuris and particularly with the Orbán-aligned MCC Institute to develop “The Great Reset: Restoring Member State Sovereignty in the 21st Century.” The plan seeks to weaken the role of the EU courts, replace the EU with a “European Community of Nations” (akin to the original Coal and Steel Community), halt the expansion of EU competences, eliminate supranational regulation, and reduce the power of the European Parliament.
Trump, however, received Orbán’s recent visit with more transactional logic. He criticised Hungary for helping finance Russia’s war in Ukraine by continuing to import Russian energy.
Hungary’s Strategic Options Are Thus Few and Discouraging
Orbán’s post-2014 strategy of balancing East and West has become increasingly difficult. Russia’s weakening reduces Hungary’s buffer; China is less willing to risk conflict with the entire EU; Turkey is focused on its own regional strategy (including the Organisation of Turkic States); and the United States, as an external strategic risk, has pushed the remaining European countries closer together.
Hungary therefore now faces three main scenarios:
- Reform and Re-Integration. If Péter Magyar wins in 2026 and Hungary turns back toward Europe, the country could gradually stabilise its economy. But it would require fiscal consolidation, technological upgrading, and a restoration of rule-of-law standards.
- Prolonged Stagnation. If Viktor Orbán remains in power but without a viable growth model, Hungary risks drifting into the middle-income trap. The economy would continue to erode, inflation would remain chronically high, industrial output would fall, debt would rise, and conflicts with the EU would intensify. Hungary would become a “grey-zone economy” inside the EU.
- Hungarian Exit (Huxit). This scenario is unlikely in the short term, although it appears in Hungarian debate. An exit would almost certainly trigger sovereign default, drive out the last foreign investors, and create deep political instability. Moreover, Hungary must itself choose to leave—the EU cannot expel a member, only suspend voting rights under Article 7.
Will 2026 Be the Year Hungary Detaches Itself from Russia?
Hungary faces a self-inflicted crisis with three simultaneous shocks: a political crisis with the EU, an economic crisis driven by declining industrial activity, and a geopolitical crisis linked to its Russia policy.
The country is again where it stood before 1989—caught in the cross-currents of rival great powers, with an economy that holds together only in the short term. Hungary is not lost. But the model Orbán has built since 2010 is.
Will the 2026 parliamentary election, 70 years after the 1956 uprising, be the moment when Hungary finally separates itself from Russia?
For the rest of the EU, what began as an illiberal experiment may ultimately stand as a warning to all European states of what happens when economic modernisation is halted by political centralisation.