Concepts and definitions
AI and technology
AI is the collective term for systems capable of detecting patterns, making choices, and acting in ways that were previously the preserve of humans. One could argue that AI is best understood as Alien Intelligence, since it represents a genuinely new form of intelligence. If it were not new, it would not be “intelligent” in the true sense, but merely an expression of machine optimisation. Over time, AI will drive new waves of innovation, which is why it features at the very top of every nation’s strategic agenda. AI is the geopolitical fulcrum of the future, because knowledge is power.
AGI marks the point at which the integration of specialised AI domains produces an intelligence that surpasses the human mind in breadth and adaptability. Reaching this point requires, above all, the development and integration of artificial senses. AGI may thus be described as the vision of a multimodal algorithm which not only solves problems, but also determines which problems are worth addressing. Today’s AI systems are essentially statistical models of a knowledge base. Once the AGI threshold is crossed, AGI itself becomes the knowledge base.
Vector relations, “follow the correlation”, are central and innovative in the way AI functions. Traditional computers operate deterministically, based on unique and unambiguous relations, and thus always produce the same answer. By contrast, AI translates knowledge and meaning into multidimensional numerical spaces, influenced by context and by AI’s capacity for self-learning. This enables AI to “understand” patterns.
Quantum computing builds on nature’s own uncertainty, exploiting the quantum-mechanical principles of superposition and entanglement. A quantum computer can therefore explore many possibilities in parallel, whereas a classical computer processes one pathway at a time. This opens the door to breakthroughs in fields such as medicine and materials science. Quantum computing represents the next level of computational power, which explains why all Big Tech companies, alongside leading technical universities, are investing heavily in this area. The race is also geopolitical in nature, China, for example, currently leads in the field of quantum communication.
Society and geopolitics
Geopolitics, “follow the map”, is the study of how nations naturally translate their geography, resources, and populations into strengths and vulnerabilities. In geopolitics, there are no permanent friends, only permanent interests. The interests themselves endure, but the pathways to them change with leadership.
Geoeconomy is geopolitics translated into “follow the money”. It is the art of shaping power and securing future supply lines through trade, investment, technology, and financial flows. When the European Union directs its trade relations and investments towards securing its supply chains, this is geo-economics in practice.
The globalisation imperative arises from the lack of self-sufficiency, which compels most nations to connect to the network of the world economy. Without full strategic autonomy in critical areas such as raw materials, industrial capacity, and defence capabilities, small export-dependent nations such as Denmark or Singapore are obliged to integrate into global markets in order to preserve their prosperity. Countries quickly lose relevance if they fail to keep pace with international standards in areas such as technology or energy.
Strategy is “follow the goal”, i.e. the discipline of choosing one’s battles and allocating resources so that the right objectives are achieved as effectively as possible. Economics, in this sense, is the art of making the most of life, precisely because resources are always limited.
Top management is “follow the responsibility”. It is the art of setting direction, creating frameworks, and making the difficult decisions, decisions whose consequences always extend beyond the individual leader. It is the discipline of ensuring today’s operations deliver, without constraining tomorrow’s possibilities.
FINANCE
Leverage is borrowing in order to invest. It acts as a force multiplier, amplifying both failure and success. Fundamentally, leverage reflects investors’ assessment of whether equities will deliver higher returns, or higher risks, than debt. The level of leverage therefore serves as a signal of the strength of long-term expectations for market performance.
Debt is “follow the promise”, i.e. bringing forward future consumption to the present. Economically, debt can be essential for triggering growth spirals or for securing future consumption capacity, for example in areas such as environmental and climate investment. However, debt can quickly become destructive if one forgets that rising interest rates may trigger debt spirals, which in turn constrain future consumption. At the individual level, debt binds people to banks; at the sovereign level, it binds nations to one another.
Natural (or neutral) rate of interest is the theoretical notion of the economy’s hidden pulse: the balance point at which the price of time (the interest rate) aligns with the economy’s current level of activity. At this point, growth sustains inflation without pushing it upward or downward. The natural rate thus reflects the underlying rhythm of the economy, the collective expectations, risk appetite, and confidence in the future.
Monetary policy is influencing financial stability and the future trajectory of the economy through today’s price of time (interest rates), price crosses (exchange rates), and units (money supply). From the financial crisis through to the inflationary spikes of 2021, monetary policy in many countries often blurred into fiscal policy. Central banks, in effect, became financiers of expanding government deficits, a reality that now leaves many governments deeply concerned.
Yield spread are the differences between two interest rates, typically across countries, bonds, or maturities. The spread therefore represents the market’s insurance premium for perceived quality differences, such as repayment risk. Yield spreads are also shaped by fundamental market dynamics, such as the balance between money supply and demand. Where demand for bonds is strong, reflected in a high bid-to-cover ratio, yield spreads tend to compress.
Economy and currency
CBDC (Central Bank Digital Currencies) “follow the state”, are digital versions of sovereign money. They are issued by central banks, just like notes and coins, but underpinned by digital infrastructure. This increases the speed and transparency of payments. Yet as transparency rises, so too does the risk of intrusion into privacy, including from foreign powers with whom payment information must be shared for validation purposes. CBDCs have been under development for many years, but in Europe the pace accelerated significantly after the United States, in 2025, chose to rely on privately issued stablecoins instead.
Climate economy is “follow the carbon”, i.e. the discipline of assigning a price to greenhouse gases: to emissions, to transitions, and to capture. Climate is a global phenomenon, but its consequences are often most acute at the local level. Climate economics is therefore also about ensuring that the polluter pays. It shapes not only opportunities for growth, but also the balance of power.
Environmental economy is “follow the footprint”, i.e. the art of placing a price (or value) on what we cannot afford to exceed: the limits of nature. Environmental economics thus rests on expectations regarding the degrees of recycling and reuse that today’s consumption must entail if it is not to foreclose the possibilities of future consumption.
Stablecoins is “follow the peg”, i.e. are digital monies designed to maintain a stable value relative to, for example, the US dollar or the euro. Issuers post certain assets as collateral, typically bonds subject to constraints on maturity and credit rating. Yet the quality of the underlying assets may fluctuate with the will of legislators. Stablecoins are therefore privately issued monies without the exchange guarantee and credibility of a central bank, transferring the most powerful instrument of central banking into the hands of private Big Tech.