{"id":2616,"date":"2025-01-05T08:17:00","date_gmt":"2025-01-05T07:17:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/kraftscharling.dk\/?p=2616"},"modified":"2025-03-14T08:26:35","modified_gmt":"2025-03-14T07:26:35","slug":"trump-wants-influence-over-fomc-decisions","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/kraftscharling.dk\/en\/trump-onsker-indflydelse-pa-fomcs-beslutninger\/","title":{"rendered":"Trump wants influence over FOMC decisions"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><br><em>Trump wants influence over FOMC decisions. This is the second of three monetary policy themes, that can affect 2025. They all have both short and long term effect on the financial system.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Debt Markets Finance the Government's Deficit<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Broadly and in the long term, FOMC decisions (monetary policy) steer the debt markets:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Liquidity volumes have immediate effects:\u00a0More liquidity, such as through QE, raises bid-to-cover ratios, pushing effective interest rates down and stock prices up.\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The\u00a0more debt already in the market, the more financial stability relies on consistent liquidity availability.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Taking lessons from the inflation shocks after Covid, central banks now aim to lower politicians\u2019 expectations of central banks as \u201cwilling financiers,\u201d as discussed in the previous blog post.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The price of debt (interest rates) particularly shape the long-term\u00a0economic growth expectations, particularly investment activity.\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Interest rates have broad and uncertain effects, varying by industry based on leverage and investment intensity. <a href=\"https:\/\/kraftscharling.dk\/en\/interest-rate-versus-economic-growth\/\">There is a \u201ctransformation time lag\u201d between rate cuts and measurable macroeconomic impacts.<\/a>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Exchange rates reflect the currency's value and thus its purchasing power. This influences inflation with both short- and long-term timing.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Which is Why Trump Wants Influence Over Fed Policy<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><br>During his campaign and afterward, Trump repeatedly expressed a desire for political influence over FOMC decisions. This is critical for Trump because his tax cuts will increase the federal deficit, as discussed in <a href=\"https:\/\/kraftscharling.dk\/en\/central-banks-seek-greater-autonomy\/\">the previous blog post<\/a> as well as <a href=\"https:\/\/blog.rangvid.com\/2024\/12\/29\/five-lessons-from-2024\/\">the below graph<\/a>The U.S. budget deficit is already structurally high and long-term in nature. Thus, Trump\u2019s economic policy depends on the Fed resuming its role as a massive financier, i.e., increasing its purchases of Treasury bonds (federal debt).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Fed May Be Forced into the Financier Role to Ensure Financial Stability<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>If the Fed does not purchase enough bonds to balance supply and demand for liquidity, there is a risk of asymmetric liquidity shortages. This has not been widely seen since 2008, but such a shortage could disrupt financial stability through irrational market behavior.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The risk of liquidity shortages has increased since the Fed resumed QT (balance sheet reductions) in June 2022. Since then, market liquidity has fallen to near-zero or neutral levels, evidenced by banks\u2019 daily reverse repo transactions with the Fed. If this trend continues, asymmetrical liquidity shortages could arise as early as Q2 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Converging Monetary and Fiscal Policy Has Been a Longstanding Taboo<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Legally, there is no explicit prohibition in the Federal Reserve Act of 1913 against this.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Nevertheless, political interference in FOMC decisions would break the foundational principles of financial architecture, risking fiduciary trust. History is full of examples where such interference led to financial crises and collapses.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>These lessons have shaped the thinking of leading economists such as Kydland and Prescott, as well as Rogoff and Reinhart. Their consensus is that independence fosters credibility, which enhances central banks\u2019 ability to fight inflation effectively by reducing time inconsistency in monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Independence has also been a cornerstone of Milton Friedman\u2019s advocacy for rule-based monetary policy to minimize inflationary effects. This principle is central to the libertarian wing of the Republican Party, which helped secure Trump\u2019s election. Reconciling this break with Friedman\u2019s ideas may require Trump (and Scott Bessent) to craft a semantic bridge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Independence is the Basis for Credibility<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Shortly after the election, Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated that the Fed alone controls monetary policy. When directly asked if Trump agreed, Powell pointed out that his term doesn\u2019t end until May 2026. Powell hinted that Trump would have to either dismiss him prematurely or confront the Fed in the markets, forcing it to buy Treasury bonds to ensure financial stability.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Dismissing Powell wouldn\u2019t \u201csolve the problem,\u201d as FOMC decisions are made by majority vote among its 12 members. Most of their terms run well beyond 2032. Hence, Trump would likely need to rely on a market-based confrontation to pressure the Fed into acting as a financier.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This could damage the Fed\u2019s credibility in both markets and the broader public. The Fed would face the challenge of opposing the world\u2019s most powerful political position, while Trump wields control over social media and has recently secured the support of a majority of U.S. voters.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The ECB Faces a Different, but Potentially Similar, Dilemma<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>A similar conflict is unlikely in the EU in the short term.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The ECB\u2019s mandate is formally limited to inflation and financial stability, not economic growth. This differs from the Fed\u2019s dual mandate. Moreover, the ECB\u2019s approach remains rooted in Otmar Issing\u2019s \u201ctwo-pillar\u201d philosophy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>By contrast, Mario Draghi\u2019s September report called for joint debt issuance as part of a series of cohesive recommendations. However, issuing additional debt equivalent to 5% of EU GDP annually cannot be financed by markets alone. The ECB would need to increase liquidity to maintain financial stability, particularly if it lowers interest rates faster than the U.S.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Click here for the first post in the trilogy on how <a href=\"https:\/\/kraftscharling.dk\/en\/central-banks-seek-greater-autonomy\/\">central banks seek greater autonomy and reduced liquidity stimuli.<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Click here for the last post in the trilogy on how <a href=\"https:\/\/kraftscharling.dk\/en\/trump-wants-a-drop-in-the-usd-value-3\/\">Trump wants a drop in the usd value<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"431\" src=\"https:\/\/kraftscharling.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/7-Fed-resumed-its-QT-in-June-2022-1024x431.jpg\" alt=\"Fed resumed its QT in june 2022\" class=\"wp-image-2618\" srcset=\"\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" data-srcset=\"\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Fed resumed its QT in june 2022<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"426\" src=\"https:\/\/kraftscharling.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/7-Total-surplus-liquidity-eg-Reverse-REPO-is-getting-close-to-neutral-1024x426.jpg\" alt=\"Total surplus liquidity eg Reverse REPO is getting close to neutral\" class=\"wp-image-2619\" srcset=\"\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" data-srcset=\"\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Total surplus liquidity eg Reverse REPO is getting close to neutral<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"501\" height=\"327\" src=\"https:\/\/kraftscharling.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/7-US-federal-debt-is-set-to-rise-beyond-the-level-from-WWII.jpg\" alt=\"US federal debt is set to rise beyond the level from WWII\" class=\"wp-image-2620\" style=\"width:660px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/kraftscharling.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/7-US-federal-debt-is-set-to-rise-beyond-the-level-from-WWII.jpg 501w, https:\/\/kraftscharling.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/7-US-federal-debt-is-set-to-rise-beyond-the-level-from-WWII-300x196.jpg 300w, https:\/\/kraftscharling.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/7-US-federal-debt-is-set-to-rise-beyond-the-level-from-WWII-18x12.jpg 18w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 501px) 100vw, 501px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">US federal debt is set to rise beyond the level from WWII<\/figcaption><\/figure>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Trump \u00f8nsker indflydelse p\u00e5 FOMCs beslutninger. Det er det andet af tre pengepolitiske temaer, der kan p\u00e5virke 2025. De kan alle f\u00e5 kort- og is\u00e6r langsigtet betydning for det finansielle system. G\u00e6ldsmarkederne finansierer statens underskud Generelt og langsigtet styrer FOMCs beslutninger (pengepolitikken) g\u00e6ldsmarkederne. Derfor \u00f8nsker Trump indflydelse p\u00e5 Feds pengepolitik Under valgkampen og siden da, [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":2617,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[27,34],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2616","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-finansmarkeder","category-pengepolitik"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Trump \u00f8nsker indflydelse p\u00e5 FOMCs beslutninger - Kraft Scharling<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Trump \u00f8nsker indflydelse p\u00e5 FOMCs beslutninger, imod Feds \u00f8nske. 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