{"id":2477,"date":"2024-08-06T11:33:00","date_gmt":"2024-08-06T09:33:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/kraftscharling.dk\/?p=2477"},"modified":"2025-11-13T15:23:57","modified_gmt":"2025-11-13T14:23:57","slug":"russias-and-chinas-friendship-without-limits","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/kraftscharling.dk\/en\/ruslands-og-kinas-graenseloese-venskab\/","title":{"rendered":"Russias and Chinas friendship without limits"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Russia and China\u2019s \u201cfriendship without limits\u201d was announced ahead of the Beijing Olympics in 2022, three weeks before the invasion in Ukraine. It has been unclear what China\u2019s quid pro quo for this friendship is. Partly, there is a geopolitical advantage in keeping the US militarily focused on Europe. However, intelligence circles now speculate that the pipeline project from Lake Baikal is once again under consideration. The project could provide much-needed revenue for Russia but would increase Putin\u2019s domestic political risk. Conversely, it could secure China access to the most critical resource of all: clean drinking water.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">China lacks clean drinking water<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In 2016, China and Russia signed a <a href=\"https:\/\/kraftscharling.dk\/en\/is-chinas-belt-and-road-initiative-in-trouble\/\">Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)<\/a> agreement to build a 1000-kilometer-long pipeline from Lake Baikal to the Chinese city of Daqing. The $15 billion pipeline will take 10-15 years to construct. It will have the capacity to transport up to 100 billion cubic meters of clean drinking water per year for more than 100 years. Lake Baikal holds 20% of the planet\u2019s surface freshwater capacity (excluding groundwater and ice).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Conversely, China has a significant and urgent water problem.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>18% of the world\u2019s population lives in China, but the country has only 6% of freshwater resources.\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The shortage is mainly due to the unequal distribution of water relative to the population. Every fourth Chinese citizen lives in the northern provinces, where only 4% of the country\u2019s freshwater reserves are located.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>China\u2019s rapid industrialization meant that it never invested in thorough infrastructure for wastewater treatment and reuse.\u00a0Water consumption is still largely based on groundwater.\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Climate change will worsen the replenishment of China\u2019s groundwater reserves.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>A 2016 government study found that 80% of China\u2019s groundwater quality is \u201csignificantly polluted\u201d with heavy metals like arsenic. Thus, it is unsuitable for drinking water and can only be purified at great expense.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>China became acutely aware of the freshwater shortage during the summer of 2022. The drought affected more than 900 million people in China and 2.2 million hectares of agricultural land. In many provinces, emergency bottled water supplies and bathing water rationing were necessary.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>If a freshwater pipeline takes 10-15 years to build, it is urgent for China.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">However, the project risks destroying Lake Baikal\u2019s sensitive biosphere. This would trigger an ecological disaster for the half a million Russians whose livelihoods depend on the lake. Therefore, the original BRI project was halted in 2017 following intense local protests. Putin\u2019s long closest ally, Sergei Shoigu, is from the Tyva province, which borders Baikal. But in the spring of 2024, Shoigu was demoted from the Defense Minister post.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The project poses many risks for Russia<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The project is geopolitically risky for Russia. If China builds its existential dependence around the life-critical water resource from Baikal, many geopolitical risks between Russia and China increase. Moreover, Russia\u2019s internal risk from Eastern Russia rises.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>First, China will militarily defend its access to clean drinking water (survival).<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Second, the project risks rekindling China\u2019s claims to the area that until 1860 was called Outer Manchuria.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>China\u2019s claims to territories like Hong Kong, Tibet, and Taiwan all trace back to the period in Chinese history known as the \u201cCentury of Humiliation,\u201d from the start of the First Opium War in 1842 to the establishment of the People\u2019s Republic in 1949.\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>In the 1850s, Russia occupied Outer Manchuria. The area includes the current cities of Khabarovsk and the strategically important port city of Vladivostok.\u00a0It was humiliatingly sealed with the Peking Agreement in 1860.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Thus, Russia secured access to the Sea of Japan and nearly ice-free navigation for its Pacific fleet for 10 months a year.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>But China lost its access to the same. Today, this means that China\u2019s navy cannot defend itself from multiple directions simultaneously, especially against Japan.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Shortly after the revolution, in 1919, the Soviet Union\u2019s new Deputy Foreign Commissar, Lev Karakhan, issued a declaration stating that the imperial structures would be dismantled. China interpreted this as a promise that the Soviet Union would return Outer Manchuria. In 1920, the Soviet Union then released a new version of the Karakhan Declaration, with all references to territorial transfers removed.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Today, there are about 8 million inhabitants in all of Eastern Russia, 4.5 million of whom are in Outer Manchuria.\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Conversely, more than 100 million people live in the three easternmost Chinese provinces. They make up the remaining part of the original Manchuria.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Eastern Russia is believed to have large oil and gas reserves underground. China, on the other hand, lacks these. The exact extent of the reserves is not publicly known and is likely not thoroughly investigated. Russia has so far oriented itself towards the west and partly south.\u00a0It has been economically unviable to extract energy so far away from sea transport.\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Moreover, the largest and most important mines for metals and minerals are located in Eastern Russia. These are metals that are\u00a0 necessary for manufacturing climate technologies, such as Lithium, Nickel, Platinum, and Palladium.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Geopolitical choices are strategic<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In intelligence circles, there are rumours of dialogue between China and Russia on resuming the Baikal pipeline project. If this happens, the geopolitical risk increases that Russia and its fleet loses its (almost) ice-free access to the Pacific Ocean.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Regarding the Ukraine war, this would further increase Russia\u2019s dependence on Sevastopol in Crimea.\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>St. Petersburg is strategically fragile to depend upon (e.g., the Great Belt).<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>From Murmansk, an ice-free channel also needs to be ice broken for 2-3 months a year.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>If China starts supplying military equipment to Russia, it could mean, according to the CIA, that the Baikal project will be resumed.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In geopolitics, there are no permanent friends or enemies, only permanent interests. When Russia invaded Ukraine, they had the support of many countries. Today, the picture has changed. This can lead to desperate decisions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"659\" height=\"361\" src=\"https:\/\/kraftscharling.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/34-Baikal-soeen-har-20-af-klodens-overflade-ferskvandskapacitet-dvs-ekskl-grundvand-og-indlandsis.jpg\" alt=\"Lake Baikal has 20% of global surface fresh water capacity, i.e. excluding ground water and glacial ice\" class=\"wp-image-2479\" style=\"width:710px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/kraftscharling.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/34-Baikal-soeen-har-20-af-klodens-overflade-ferskvandskapacitet-dvs-ekskl-grundvand-og-indlandsis.jpg 659w, https:\/\/kraftscharling.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/34-Baikal-soeen-har-20-af-klodens-overflade-ferskvandskapacitet-dvs-ekskl-grundvand-og-indlandsis-300x164.jpg 300w, https:\/\/kraftscharling.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/34-Baikal-soeen-har-20-af-klodens-overflade-ferskvandskapacitet-dvs-ekskl-grundvand-og-indlandsis-18x10.jpg 18w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 659px) 100vw, 659px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Lake Baikal has 20% of global surface fresh water capacity, i.e. excluding ground water and glacial ice<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"751\" height=\"424\" src=\"https:\/\/kraftscharling.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/34-I-Oestrusland-kan-der-opstaa-loesrivelsesforsoeg-hvis-Baikal-pipelinen-gennemfoeres.png\" alt=\"In East Siberia there is risk of secession, if the Baikal pipeline project is carried out\" class=\"wp-image-2480\" srcset=\"https:\/\/kraftscharling.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/34-I-Oestrusland-kan-der-opstaa-loesrivelsesforsoeg-hvis-Baikal-pipelinen-gennemfoeres.png 751w, https:\/\/kraftscharling.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/34-I-Oestrusland-kan-der-opstaa-loesrivelsesforsoeg-hvis-Baikal-pipelinen-gennemfoeres-300x169.png 300w, https:\/\/kraftscharling.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/34-I-Oestrusland-kan-der-opstaa-loesrivelsesforsoeg-hvis-Baikal-pipelinen-gennemfoeres-18x10.png 18w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 751px) 100vw, 751px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">In East Siberia there is risk of secession, if the Baikal pipeline project is carried out<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"450\" height=\"371\" src=\"https:\/\/kraftscharling.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/34-Manchuriet-blev-delt-i-1860-og-derpaa-tilfaldt-adgangen-til-det-japanske-hav-alene-Rusland.jpg\" alt=\"Manchuria was divided in 1860, after which China was cut off from access to the Sea of Japan\" class=\"wp-image-2481\" style=\"width:610px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/kraftscharling.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/34-Manchuriet-blev-delt-i-1860-og-derpaa-tilfaldt-adgangen-til-det-japanske-hav-alene-Rusland.jpg 450w, https:\/\/kraftscharling.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/34-Manchuriet-blev-delt-i-1860-og-derpaa-tilfaldt-adgangen-til-det-japanske-hav-alene-Rusland-300x247.jpg 300w, https:\/\/kraftscharling.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/34-Manchuriet-blev-delt-i-1860-og-derpaa-tilfaldt-adgangen-til-det-japanske-hav-alene-Rusland-15x12.jpg 15w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 450px) 100vw, 450px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Manchuria was divided in 1860, after which China was cut off from access to the Sea of Japan<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"642\" height=\"351\" src=\"https:\/\/kraftscharling.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/34-Ruslands-energiudvinding-er-i-den-vestlige-del-men-der-ventes-lige-store-reserver-i-oest.jpg\" alt=\"Russias energy production is predominantly in the western, but equally large reserves are expected in the eastern part\" class=\"wp-image-2482\" style=\"width:768px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/kraftscharling.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/34-Ruslands-energiudvinding-er-i-den-vestlige-del-men-der-ventes-lige-store-reserver-i-oest.jpg 642w, https:\/\/kraftscharling.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/34-Ruslands-energiudvinding-er-i-den-vestlige-del-men-der-ventes-lige-store-reserver-i-oest-300x164.jpg 300w, https:\/\/kraftscharling.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/34-Ruslands-energiudvinding-er-i-den-vestlige-del-men-der-ventes-lige-store-reserver-i-oest-18x10.jpg 18w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 642px) 100vw, 642px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Russias energy production is predominantly in the western, but equally large reserves are expected in the eastern part<\/figcaption><\/figure>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Ruslands og Kinas \u201dgr\u00e6nsel\u00f8se venskab\u201d blev annonceret op til OL i Kina i 2022, 3 uger f\u00f8r invasionen af Ukraine. Det har v\u00e6ret uklart, hvad Kinas modpris for venskabet er. Dels er der en geopolitisk fordel ved, at holde USA milit\u00e6rt fokuseret p\u00e5 Europa. Men i efterretningskredse spekuleres nu i, at pipeline-projektet fra Baikal s\u00f8en [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":2478,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[29,30,33],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2477","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-geopolitik","category-kinas-oekonomi","category-miljoeoekonomi"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Ruslands og Kinas gr\u00e6nsel\u00f8se venskab - Kraft Scharling<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Hvor reelt er Ruslands og Kinas &quot;gr\u00e6nsel\u00f8se&quot; venskab? 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