{"id":2447,"date":"2024-06-25T10:16:00","date_gmt":"2024-06-25T08:16:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/kraftscharling.dk\/?p=2447"},"modified":"2025-03-13T10:36:00","modified_gmt":"2025-03-13T09:36:00","slug":"do-predictions-depend-on-history","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/kraftscharling.dk\/en\/haenger-forudsigelse-og-historie-sammen\/","title":{"rendered":"Do predictions depend on history?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Do predictions differ from history? In 2023, we said goodbye to Charlie Munger, Warren Buffett's faithful \"belt and suspenders,\" a man with a broad and down-to-earth intellect. Charlie had the ability to ask questions that brought a visionary and moral perspective. Regarding his <a href=\"https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/sites\/johnjennings\/2023\/11\/29\/charlie-munger-died-at-99here-are-his-5-most-important-pieces-of-advice\/\">prediction abilities, Charlie Munger<\/a> said himself: \"There is no better teacher than history in determining the future\".<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Why is history important?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">But are we then able to describe history objectively and nuanced enough so that we can project it with reasonable accuracy, i.e., to predict?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In the book 1984, George Orwell wrote about history: \u201cHe who controls the past controls the future. He who controls the present controls the past.\u201d By this, Orwell primarily meant that the way we describe the past depends on our goals today. Our bias thus influences our view of the past and, thereby, the outcome of the future.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Although the universe can be described quite precisely using mathematics, this does not mean that the future can be simply predicted by projecting the past. The 18th-century philosopher David Hume called this the problem of induction, as it pertains to determining the likelihood of a future event based on past observations. In doing so, we also assume that the laws of nature will continue as they have; otherwise, they would not be laws. This is what Bertrand Russell described in The Problems of Philosophy: if a chicken is fed every day at 9:00 a.m., it becomes a law in its mind\u2014right up until the day the farmer chops off its head.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This theory thus collectively refutes Charlie Munger\u2019s statement. The problem is just that few living people have come close to Charlie Munger\u2019s ability to predict. He became (extremely) wealthy by hitting the mark time and time again.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Do we misunderstand the concept of history?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">But is that because we misunderstand the concept of history? According to Yuval Noah Harari: \"History is the study of change, not merely a description of the past.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201dThe best way to predict the future is to create it\u201d. Abraham Lincoln<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">See also the following blog <a href=\"https:\/\/kraftscharling.dk\/en\/why-predict\/\">https:\/\/kraftscharling.dk\/hvorfor-forudsige\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Er der forskel p\u00e5 forudsigelse vs historie? I 2023 sagde vi farvel til Charlie Munger, der var Warren Buffett\u2019s trofaste \u201dlivrem og seler\u201d med det brede og jordn\u00e6re intellekt. Charlie evnede at stille d\u00e9 sp\u00f8rgsm\u00e5l, der perspektiverede p\u00e5 en b\u00e5de vision\u00e6r og moralsk m\u00e5de. Om sin evne til forudsigelse sagde Charlie Munger selv: \u201dThere is [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":2448,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[24,27],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2447","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ai","category-finansmarkeder"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>H\u00e6nger forudsigelse og historie sammen - Kraft Scharling<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"H\u00e6nger forudsigelse sammen med historien? Hvorfor fors\u00f8ge at forudsige finansmarkeder, hvis der er for mange indbyrdes afh\u00e6ngige variable?\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/kraftscharling.dk\/en\/do-predictions-depend-on-history\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_GB\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"H\u00e6nger forudsigelse og historie sammen - Kraft Scharling\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"H\u00e6nger forudsigelse sammen med historien? Hvorfor fors\u00f8ge at forudsige finansmarkeder, hvis der er for mange indbyrdes afh\u00e6ngige variable?\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/kraftscharling.dk\/en\/do-predictions-depend-on-history\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Kraft Scharling\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2024-06-25T08:16:00+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2025-03-13T09:36:00+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/kraftscharling.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/4e1e831c-b6f8-4779-9525-c95342f88dbd.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"700\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"700\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Henrik Kraft Scharling\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Henrik Kraft Scharling\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Estimated reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"3 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/kraftscharling.dk\\\/haenger-forudsigelse-og-historie-sammen\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/kraftscharling.dk\\\/haenger-forudsigelse-og-historie-sammen\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Henrik Kraft Scharling\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/kraftscharling.dk\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/9d2c1bfdbe9593d413234cdde1c1731a\"},\"headline\":\"H\u00e6nger forudsigelse og historie sammen\",\"datePublished\":\"2024-06-25T08:16:00+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2025-03-13T09:36:00+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/kraftscharling.dk\\\/haenger-forudsigelse-og-historie-sammen\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":379,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/kraftscharling.dk\\\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/kraftscharling.dk\\\/haenger-forudsigelse-og-historie-sammen\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/kraftscharling.dk\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/4e1e831c-b6f8-4779-9525-c95342f88dbd.jpg\",\"articleSection\":[\"AI\",\"Finansmarkeder\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-GB\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/kraftscharling.dk\\\/haenger-forudsigelse-og-historie-sammen\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/kraftscharling.dk\\\/haenger-forudsigelse-og-historie-sammen\\\/\",\"name\":\"H\u00e6nger forudsigelse og historie sammen - Kraft Scharling\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/kraftscharling.dk\\\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/kraftscharling.dk\\\/haenger-forudsigelse-og-historie-sammen\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/kraftscharling.dk\\\/haenger-forudsigelse-og-historie-sammen\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/kraftscharling.dk\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/4e1e831c-b6f8-4779-9525-c95342f88dbd.jpg\",\"datePublished\":\"2024-06-25T08:16:00+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2025-03-13T09:36:00+00:00\",\"description\":\"H\u00e6nger forudsigelse sammen med historien? Hvorfor fors\u00f8ge at forudsige finansmarkeder, hvis der er for mange indbyrdes afh\u00e6ngige variable?\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-GB\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/kraftscharling.dk\\\/haenger-forudsigelse-og-historie-sammen\\\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-GB\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/kraftscharling.dk\\\/haenger-forudsigelse-og-historie-sammen\\\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/kraftscharling.dk\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/4e1e831c-b6f8-4779-9525-c95342f88dbd.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/kraftscharling.dk\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/4e1e831c-b6f8-4779-9525-c95342f88dbd.jpg\",\"width\":700,\"height\":700,\"caption\":\"Can the future be predicted on the basis of the past\"},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/kraftscharling.dk\\\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/kraftscharling.dk\\\/\",\"name\":\"Kraft Scharling\",\"description\":\"\",\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/kraftscharling.dk\\\/#organization\"},\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\\\/\\\/kraftscharling.dk\\\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":{\"@type\":\"PropertyValueSpecification\",\"valueRequired\":true,\"valueName\":\"search_term_string\"}}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-GB\"},{\"@type\":\"Organization\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/kraftscharling.dk\\\/#organization\",\"name\":\"Kraft Scharling\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/kraftscharling.dk\\\/\",\"logo\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-GB\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/kraftscharling.dk\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/logo\\\/image\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/kraftscharling.dk\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/KraftScharling_logo_org-e1739344438206.png\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/kraftscharling.dk\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/KraftScharling_logo_org-e1739344438206.png\",\"width\":360,\"height\":360,\"caption\":\"Kraft Scharling\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/kraftscharling.dk\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/logo\\\/image\\\/\"}},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/kraftscharling.dk\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/9d2c1bfdbe9593d413234cdde1c1731a\",\"name\":\"Henrik Kraft Scharling\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Do predictions depend on history - Kraft Scharling","description":"Do predictions depend on history? Do we need to redefine or re-describe history in order to predict the future?","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/kraftscharling.dk\/en\/do-predictions-depend-on-history\/","og_locale":"en_GB","og_type":"article","og_title":"H\u00e6nger forudsigelse og historie sammen - Kraft Scharling","og_description":"H\u00e6nger forudsigelse sammen med historien? Hvorfor fors\u00f8ge at forudsige finansmarkeder, hvis der er for mange indbyrdes afh\u00e6ngige variable?","og_url":"https:\/\/kraftscharling.dk\/en\/do-predictions-depend-on-history\/","og_site_name":"Kraft Scharling","article_published_time":"2024-06-25T08:16:00+00:00","article_modified_time":"2025-03-13T09:36:00+00:00","og_image":[{"width":700,"height":700,"url":"https:\/\/kraftscharling.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/4e1e831c-b6f8-4779-9525-c95342f88dbd.jpg","type":"image\/jpeg"}],"author":"Henrik Kraft Scharling","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"Henrik Kraft Scharling","Estimated reading time":"3 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Article","@id":"https:\/\/kraftscharling.dk\/haenger-forudsigelse-og-historie-sammen\/#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/kraftscharling.dk\/haenger-forudsigelse-og-historie-sammen\/"},"author":{"name":"Henrik Kraft Scharling","@id":"https:\/\/kraftscharling.dk\/#\/schema\/person\/9d2c1bfdbe9593d413234cdde1c1731a"},"headline":"H\u00e6nger forudsigelse og historie sammen","datePublished":"2024-06-25T08:16:00+00:00","dateModified":"2025-03-13T09:36:00+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/kraftscharling.dk\/haenger-forudsigelse-og-historie-sammen\/"},"wordCount":379,"publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/kraftscharling.dk\/#organization"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/kraftscharling.dk\/haenger-forudsigelse-og-historie-sammen\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/kraftscharling.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/4e1e831c-b6f8-4779-9525-c95342f88dbd.jpg","articleSection":["AI","Finansmarkeder"],"inLanguage":"en-GB"},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/kraftscharling.dk\/haenger-forudsigelse-og-historie-sammen\/","url":"https:\/\/kraftscharling.dk\/haenger-forudsigelse-og-historie-sammen\/","name":"Do predictions depend on history - Kraft Scharling","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/kraftscharling.dk\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/kraftscharling.dk\/haenger-forudsigelse-og-historie-sammen\/#primaryimage"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/kraftscharling.dk\/haenger-forudsigelse-og-historie-sammen\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/kraftscharling.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/4e1e831c-b6f8-4779-9525-c95342f88dbd.jpg","datePublished":"2024-06-25T08:16:00+00:00","dateModified":"2025-03-13T09:36:00+00:00","description":"Do predictions depend on history? Do we need to redefine or re-describe history in order to predict the future?","inLanguage":"en-GB","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/kraftscharling.dk\/haenger-forudsigelse-og-historie-sammen\/"]}]},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-GB","@id":"https:\/\/kraftscharling.dk\/haenger-forudsigelse-og-historie-sammen\/#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/kraftscharling.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/4e1e831c-b6f8-4779-9525-c95342f88dbd.jpg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/kraftscharling.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/4e1e831c-b6f8-4779-9525-c95342f88dbd.jpg","width":700,"height":700,"caption":"Can the future be predicted on the basis of the past"},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/kraftscharling.dk\/#website","url":"https:\/\/kraftscharling.dk\/","name":"Kraft Scharling","description":"","publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/kraftscharling.dk\/#organization"},"potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/kraftscharling.dk\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"en-GB"},{"@type":"Organization","@id":"https:\/\/kraftscharling.dk\/#organization","name":"Kraft Scharling","url":"https:\/\/kraftscharling.dk\/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-GB","@id":"https:\/\/kraftscharling.dk\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/kraftscharling.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/KraftScharling_logo_org-e1739344438206.png","contentUrl":"https:\/\/kraftscharling.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/KraftScharling_logo_org-e1739344438206.png","width":360,"height":360,"caption":"Kraft Scharling"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/kraftscharling.dk\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/"}},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/kraftscharling.dk\/#\/schema\/person\/9d2c1bfdbe9593d413234cdde1c1731a","name":"Henrik Kraft Scharling"}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/kraftscharling.dk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2447","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/kraftscharling.dk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/kraftscharling.dk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kraftscharling.dk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kraftscharling.dk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2447"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/kraftscharling.dk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2447\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2452,"href":"https:\/\/kraftscharling.dk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2447\/revisions\/2452"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kraftscharling.dk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2448"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/kraftscharling.dk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2447"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kraftscharling.dk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2447"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kraftscharling.dk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2447"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}