{"id":2416,"date":"2024-06-04T08:37:00","date_gmt":"2024-06-04T06:37:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/kraftscharling.dk\/?p=2416"},"modified":"2025-03-16T14:21:35","modified_gmt":"2025-03-16T13:21:35","slug":"loss-of-confidence-incoming","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/kraftscharling.dk\/en\/tillidstab\/","title":{"rendered":"Loss of confidence incoming?"},"content":{"rendered":"
Is a loss of general trust looming from AI? <\/p>\n\n\n\n
General expectations around the globe are that the climate will cause even more extreme events this year than in 2023. This will also increase the extent of global climate-related migrations. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Both events can affect parliamentary elections this year. 2024 is a so called super election year. No fewer than 41% of the global population will be heading for the election ballots this year. Voters normally cast their votes based on information leading up to the election.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Can AI affect our choices?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
World leaders are thus concerned about how best to protect from the risk of disinformation. This is strongly exacerbated by AI. A broader theme can however also be on the rise.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\n
Op mod \u00e5bningen af World Economic Forum i januar, skrev Klaus Schwab s\u00e5ledes i en \u00e5ben kronik til globale medier, at “den aktuelle b\u00f8lge af pessimisme er uden fortilf\u00e6lde, og dens mulige effekt forv\u00e6rres af, at globale mediers og kommunikationsteknologiers indflydelse er st\u00f8rre end nogensinde. Det giver grobund for ekstremisme og demagoger”.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
Schwabs centrale pointe er, at vi “for det f\u00f8rste ikke l\u00e6ngere har et narrativ for, hvordan vi genskaber dynamikken i vores \u00f8konomier, som i dag er belastede af uholdbare g\u00e6lds- og inflationsrater, der underminerer den enkelte forbrugers k\u00f8bekraft. Traditionelle penge- og finanspolitikker har tabt momentum og de politiske initiativer, der skal skabe st\u00f8rre udbud \u00f8ger g\u00e6ldsbyrden”.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
Schwab's point is unusual and very relevant. Among african nations south of the Sahara only Botswana today has an investment grade. There have always been debt spirals, but for single countries at a time. Today it applies for entire continents.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
In the end, Schwab refers to the devastating effect from climate changes and refers to AI. He fears that this can produce a confidence crisis from misinformation and disinformation. This is particularly a result of an ever increasing AI development. Our cyber security tools, precautions and general awareness of potential risks far lack the AI development. This warping can lead to social polarisation within democracies (e.g. in the US) and between countries (wars etc.).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n
Are we heading towards a new paradigm?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Klaus Schwabs concerns are in sync with e.g. the World Banks' annual report on wealth inequality. This concludes a.o. that things are not progressing. The drop in the number of extremely poor has levelled out. Secondly, the general wealth inequality is rising, also within developed countries. This produces a squeeze for poor countries. Their economic growth is now falling but raw materials prices are expected to remain elevated until around 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
This is globally worsened by the end of the era of free and ample liquidity. Financial spreads (i.e. risk premiums) rise globally, both within countries between IG and HY, but also between countries. It has become more expensive to be poor and thus have a low rating. This increases the liquidity risk for many EMDE's, i.e. the risk of not beeing able to attract funding at any cost, because the return on investment is hollowed out by rising interests. Since mid 2021, the big central banks (PBoC, Fed and ECB) have tightened credit terms towards EMDE's. Loans to these countries fell by 5% during 2023. At the same time however, the need for funding (FDI) increased.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Er verden generelt p\u00e5 vej i en brydningstid? If\u00f8lge IISS’ Armed Conflicts Survey 2023, er der f.eks. det st\u00f8rste antal regionale og nationale konflikter p\u00e5 kloden i tre \u00e5rtier. I takt med \u00f8gede g\u00e6ldsspiraler i mange udviklingslande, giver det risiko for, at antallet og omfanget af v\u00e6bnede konflikter vil stige over de kommende \u00e5r.<\/p>\n\n\n\nThere is growing awareness of AI\u2019s risk for loss of confidence <\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\nEconomic growth in Emerging markets is slowing<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\nCredit growth to emerging economies is slowing<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\nIISS see the highest number of potential conflicts in 20 years<\/figcaption><\/figure>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Vil AI f\u00f8re til et generelt tillidstab? Der er brede forventninger blandt klodens befolkninger om, at klimaet vil byde p\u00e5 endnu flere ekstreme events end i 2023 samt, at globale migrationsb\u00f8lger vil stige. Begge begivenheder kan f\u00e5 betydning for parlamentsvalgene i \u00e5r. Hele 41% af klodens befolkning (42% af globalt BNP) skal til stemmeurnerne. V\u00e6lgerne […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":2417,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[24,27,29,34,35],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2416","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ai","category-finansmarkeder","category-geopolitik","category-pengepolitik","category-topledelse"],"yoast_head":"\n
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![\"World](\"https:\/\/kraftscharling.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/46-world-predications-2024.jpg\")
![\"Growth](\"https:\/\/kraftscharling.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/46-Fald-i-EMDE-langsigtet-vaeksttrend.png\")
![\"Slowing](\"https:\/\/kraftscharling.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/46-Fald-i-kredit-til-EMDE-400x208-1.jpg\")
![\"IISS](\"https:\/\/kraftscharling.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/46-IISS-ser-hoejeste-antal-konflikter-400x314-1.jpg\")