Politically, the US after NATO is now a goal ...
Trump has issued more Executive Orders in his first weeks than any previous president. This primarily reflects his belief that his agenda for change is urgent.
Trump has often explained the lack of domestic and trade policy success during his first term by claiming that the “Deep State” obstructed and diluted all his decisions. In making this accusation, he aligns himself with conspiracy theories dating back to Kennedy’s assassination, despite the fact that Republicans hold a majority in Congress.
The intensive use of Executive Orders means that his governance bypasses the normal "checks and balances" of the U.S. democratic process. This suggests that Trump either feels that his agenda is too urgent or that he is concerned about deeper divisions within the Republican Party. While MAGA holds a majority within the GOP, it does not represent the entire party’s stance.
… and Trump is going all in to implement his agenda
Without specifying the context, Trump himself has repeatedly posted on X that "he who saves his Country does not violate any Law."
That statement has naturally alarmed political scientists and law professors and will initially lead to a sharp increase in legal challenges to Trump’s Executive Orders. In the long run, the judicial system risks becoming overburdened.
Trump has repeatedly referred to the Unitary Executive Theory which argues, that assuming unitary power like e.g. a king would be in line with the american constitution. Thus, time will tell whether the U.S. remains a full democracy or moves in the direction of countries like Hungary.
For example, Freedom House believes that the democratic foundation has significantly eroded in recent years..
One thing is the ability to speak freely, but speech must be fact-based to be truly democratic, as Abraham Lincoln noted in his Gettysburg Address.
There is widespread concern that the strong representation of executives from the tech sector in the government may challenge free democratic discourse. A government need not jail its critics to silence dissent. This concern is particularly relevant to U.S. allies.
- American tech giants generally know more about e.g. European citizens than European intelligence agencies do.
- Elon Musk is actively using his platform, X, to influence European elections, as lately demonstrated during the German election.
- Most research and AI software used in Europe are American.
- A programmable algorithm can spread both misinformation and disinformation without accountability, unlike the press, for instance.
- The Trump administration seeks to maintain this. At this year’s AI Action Summit in Paris, JD Vance strongly criticized the EU’s fact-checking regulations on social media, arguing that the U.S. will not tolerate restrictions on American free speech as a result of these rules.
There is a deeper de-coupling, also trade policy wise ...
From a trade policy perspective, the strategy is to secure U.S. supply routes and ensure allied loyalty by increasing their dependence on and contributions to the American economy. The U.S. trade deficit has never been higher than it is today. In January, it stood at $131 billion. This provides a strong starting point for Trump’s trade war.
Trade wars are about politics and dependencies. Since Trump’s first presidency, the U.S. strategy has been to increase its strategic autonomy, in line with the Monroe Doctrine.
In general, the U.S. has some of the world’s best conditions for achieving this, as the country is self-sufficient in both energy and food, unlike China, for example. However, the key driver of economic growth is technology, with the most crucial component being chips..
This led to the Biden administration’s CHIPS and Science Act in 2022, aiming to boost domestic chip production to 20% by 2030. Trump intends to push this agenda even further, which is why he launched Project Stargate just two days after his inauguration. Stargate will invest between $100 billion and $500 billion in AI infrastructure, including data centers, AI software development, and quantum computing advancements. The goal is to make the U.S. central to global AI development.
Stargate is a key part of AFIP, as mentioned above, but it remains unclear whether the project will lead to a break with previous cooperation with allies, or, or whether the EU is even still considered an ally. In the field of quantum computing, in particular, there has historically been specialization between countries..
... where Trump may be hiding the worst till the end
How the trade war will unfold is still uncertain. It will likely depend on whether Trump can secure concessions in other areas.
However, the order in which he has announced tariff increases against certain countries may be significant. Regardless of confidence, most leaders prefer to have only a limited number of open fronts at a time.
- Mexico and Canada were the first countries to be threatened with 25% tariffs. This sequence resembles his first term when the NAFTA 2.0 agreement (USMCA) was the first trade deal he secured.
- The EU, Japan, South Korea, and Australia could therefore be next in line for trade pressure.
- China will likely be the final and largest adversary.
- It was Trump’s primary focus during the campaign and it was where he suffered his biggest defeat in his first term.
- His campaign rhetoric was strongly Asia- and Oceania-focused. Since the election, both Trump and JD Vance have generally distanced themselves from Europe, which they view as “bad” U.S. allies. At the same time, they have sought to build closer relations with Russia, America’s old adversary. Russia’s greatest geopolitical risk is China.
- This theory is further supported by the fact that Rubio’s first visit as Secretary of State was with the Quad Alliance, which China considers its biggest security threat.
- During the visit, Rubio reaffirmed the U.S.’s only military guarantee, pledging “ironclad” support to the Philippines in its territorial disputes with China in the South China Sea.
To be continued in the next blog post