Georgia is stuck between Russia and the EU. The parliamentary election in October granted a majority to the incumbent government, despite polls predicting otherwise. This status quo delays Georgia’s integration into the EU and especially NATO, maintaining tensions in the Caucasus. However, it also reduces the risk of a full-scale Russian invasion.
Georgians Aspire to Align Westward Instead of Northward
Geographically, Georgia is centrally located in the Caucasus between Russia and Turkey. Strategically, it sits at the boundary between NATO and the CSTO (of which Armenia is a member). The CSTO includes a collective defense clause similar to NATO's.
Culturally and ethnically, most Georgians consider themselves anti-Russian, much like Ukrainians. Around 80% of Georgians favor EU membership for this very reason.
When the Soviet Union dissolved in 1991, Georgia declared independence. Moscow, however, viewed Georgia as geopolitically crucial for its connection to the Middle East. This led to Russia’s invasion under the guise of protecting large Russian minorities in South Ossetia and Abkhazia (parallels to Ukraine’s Donbas and Luhansk regions).
- Instability persists in these regions, with Russia effectively controlling 20% of Georgia’s territory.
Over a decade, Georgia’s GDP halved, and its population dropped from 5 million in 1989 to 3.7 million today. The GDP decline was primarily due to the loss of Russia as a major trading partner.
After the 1993 ceasefire, Georgia’s primary export became recycled scrap metal from abandoned Russian military equipment.
Selvtilliden kom især med den libertarianske “Rosenrevolution” i 2003
In 2003, the Rose Revolution brought libertarian Georgian-Ukrainian Mikheil Saakashvili to power, replacing Eduard Shevardnadze as president.
Saakashvili implemented privatization, reduced taxes, and aggressively tackled corruption, including dismissing 16,000 police officers in his first year. His reforms were initially met with skepticism, even leading the IMF to suspend lending.
However, the reforms were largely successful. From 2004 to 2007, Georgia’s GDP grew by 35%, driven initially by agricultural exports like wine. But in 2006, when Saakashvili sought NATO membership, Russia once again boycotted Georgian goods and declared war in 2008, occupying nearly the entire country in just 12 days.
The subsequent ceasefire granted South Ossetia and Abkhazia autonomy with the ruble as their currency, while Russian forces withdrew from the rest of Georgia.
The "Georgian Dream" Party Balances Between Russia and the West
Since 2013, Bidzina Ivanishvili’s “Georgian Dream” party has dominated politics. It negotiated a free trade agreement with the EU and fostered a booming tourism industry, especially from Russian visitors, despite Georgia technically being at war with Russia.
However, economic growth has been uneven. Unemployment stands at 17%, and the outdated education system hinders the attraction of advanced foreign companies. Agriculture remains the primary export sector.
In recent years, Georgia has developed a small but thriving IT industry, attracting work from U.S. tech companies, a strategy similar to Ukraine’s before the Russian invasion in 2022.
Officially, Georgia Aspires to NATO and EU Membership...
Georgia officially continues to pursue NATO and EU membership, though with limited prospects.
I 2008 førte NATO-topmødet i Bukarest til en erklæring om, at Georgien “en dag” skal blive medlem af NATO. Men NATO afviste at give Georgien (og Ukraine) en såkaldt “Membership Action Plan” (MAP), dvs. en konkret handlingsplan for medlemskab. Ruslands invasion i Ukraine i 2022 genstartede Georgiens ønske om vestlig tilknytning. NATO afviste dog optagelsesforhandlinger sålænge krigen i Ukraine er i gang og, sålænge der er uro i Abkhasien og Sydossetien.
In March 2022, Georgia applied for EU membership, following Ukraine and Moldova. In June 2022, the EU outlined reforms required for candidate status, but progress has been slow.
The poor prospects of EU and NATO membership are parts of the reason why "Georgian Dream" since 2012 har sought to re-balance the country towards Russia. Both EU and NATO only opened the door slightly. The opposition in Georgia however think that the government is run by Russia. "Georgian Dream" a.o. refuses to condemn Russias invasion in Ukraine nor to participate in the Wests sanctions on Russia.
... Yet the opposition claism it's all for show
I maj 2024 vedtog parlamentet desuden en kontroversiel lov om “udenlandske agenter”. Vedtagelsen skete med overvældende flertal, fordi oppositionen under afstemningen blev nægtet adgang til parlamentet. Ifølge loven skal organisationer, der har modtaget over 20 % af deres finansiering fra udlandet, registrere sig som “udenlandske agenter” og oplyse deres finansieringskilder. Oppositionspolitikere, ngo’ere og diplomater sammenligner den med dén lov, der i Rusland har været brugt til at undertrykke kritikere af regeringen siden 2012.
At the end of October there was a parliamentary election in Georgia. Up until the election polls favoured the opposition alliance Unified National Movement. Yet the election results ruled Georgian Dream victorious. Opposition leader Tina Bokuchava thus thinks, that "the election was stolen from the georgian people" and denies accepting the result.
The liberation of the Georgian people from Russia thus has longer outlook. Georgian membership of the EU could maybe be initiated as a result of a peace between Russia and Ukraine. But NATO membership is very unlikely.
Georgia’s Fate Affects Stability in the Caucasus
The election also has implications for Georgia's neighbors and Russia's geopolitical influence in the Caucasus region.
- Turkey's trade with Central Asian countries depends on transit corridors through Georgia to Azerbaijan's coastline on the Caspian Sea. Turkey and Armenia, for their part, face ongoing border disputes and maintain limited diplomatic relations, largely due to historical tensions.
- Armenia is increasingly worried about the possibility of hybrid warfare with Russia.
- In September, the Armenian government accused Russia of plotting a coup. Opposition members from Armenia had reportedly undergone three months of training in Rostov-on-Don earlier in the year. Additionally, they were allegedly provided with substantial financial resources to organize the coup.
- Armenia has gradually shifted away from reliance on Russia, especially as Russia’s ties with neighboring Azerbaijan have strengthened. Examples include Russia’s support for Azerbaijan’s 2023 invasion of the Nagorno-Karabakh enclave and Azerbaijan’s recent accession to BRICS.
- Ud over Georgien er Armeniens eneste “gode” nabo Iran. Men Iran er under internationale sanktioner, og derfor vil Armenien ikke kunne bruge Iran som transitland for egen eksport.
- Armenia has stated that "if the opportunity for EU membership arises, Armenia will seize it."
Growing unrest in Georgia thus affects the entire region.