Developing quantum computers requires cooperation between multiple countries, and quantum computers are crucial for AI development going forward, including achieving AGI. But on January 22, the U.S. launched Project Stargate, which aims to make the U.S. even more central in AI development. This is the final blog post of three on AI and geopolitics.
AGI and Quantum Computers Are the Next Global Technological Race. Quantum Technology Provides, Among Other Things, the Computational Power to Decipher and Create Secure Encryption.
The development of commercially viable quantum computers is such a large and complex task that it requires cooperation between countries. This necessitates geopolitical alliances.
Most Countries Are Betting Big on the Development of Quantum Computers...
Over the past decade, governments in 20 countries have announced specific investment plans amounting to over 40 billion USD for the development of quantum computers.
- China has allocated funds totaling 15.2 billion USD over the next 5 years. Quantum technology has been a national priority for China since 2016. Technologically, China is a global leader in quantum communication, including via satellites.
- The EU has consolidated parts of its research funding since 2018 in programs such as Quantum Flagship, Horizon Europe, and Digital Europe. Globally, the EU leads in areas such as Quantum Key Distribution (QKD). Additionally, Germany is a global leader in quantum hardware and sensors, and France is ahead in areas like quantum cryptography. The EU is estimated to be researching at a nearly equal level to the U.S., though much more spread out.
...But Since January 22, the U.S. Has Clearly Invested the Most...
- Until January 22, the U.S. had formalized its research since 2018 through the National Quantum Initiative and had committed 3.7 billion USD in broader funding. This is in addition to the defense sector's quantum research. Civilian research is conducted in collaboration with big tech companies and several universities, including Caltech and MIT. The U.S. is estimated to be researching nearly double the amount that China is investing.
- However, on January 22, Trump launched Project Stargate, which is to be owned in a joint venture with the U.S. government, Oracle, Softbank, and OpenAI. The partners have committed to an initial 100 billion USD, with up to 500 billion USD in funding.
- The program aims to ensure that the U.S. becomes globally central and leading in AI development, including AGI, by creating “AI infrastructure.” In practice, this mainly involves quantum computers.
...Because Through This, the U.S. Can Once Again Become Globally Leading in Research and Development
Quantum computers can create significant breakthroughs in research because they primarily multiply computing power by thousands, compared to existing supercomputers. Additionally, quantum computers can offer secure communication by leveraging principles of quantum entanglement and Heisenberg’s uncertainty principle.
Quantum technology has the potential for breakthroughs in areas such as fundamental research in physics. Furthermore, it is crucial for creating breakthroughs in fields like artificial photosynthesis. For example, it could enable the production of fertilizers by mimicking the processes of the FeMoco molecule, which creates ammonia by converting nitrogen from the air. Currently, fertilizer production accounts for more than 2% of global energy production. The same is true for parts of the pharmaceutical industry that require molecular interactions within the body (including nanobots). This includes simulating the behavior of Cytochrome P450, a family of enzymes that determine metabolism and, therefore, how patients react to various drugs. Finally, there are high expectations for the use of quantum technologies in CRISPR technologies to develop climate-resistant crops, a.o.
Such Major Quantum Leaps Require Collaboration...
The technology thus offers great opportunities for economic growth. As a result, its potential has long influenced international politics. For instance, in 2019, the U.S. entered into a bilateral agreement on quantum research with Japan, which was strengthened in 2023.
However, in 2024, the U.S. also established a multilateral initiative called the Quantum Development Group. This is meant to coordinate quantum technology research strategies between the U.S. and its allies to make development as efficient as possible. In recent years, quantum technology has also been on the agenda at economic forums and in security collaborations such as AUKUS and Quad (Australia, India, Japan, and the U.S.), as well as the U.S.-EU Trade and Technology Council.
This cooperation is necessary because, over the past five years, China has made significant breakthroughs in the quantum race, particularly in quantum communication. Therefore, Western countries need to ramp up their research and focus compared to today.
...For Many Years to Come
The U.S.'s DARPA (Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency) recently unveiled the Quantum Benchmarking Initiative. It estimates that by the end of the 2020s, we may see an industry-scale quantum computer with over 10 logical qubits. However, it will likely be in the mid-2030s before we witness the first true quantum decryption machine with millions of qubits and sufficient error correction capabilities.
Today, quantum technology is among the most important intellectual property (IP) developments for major tech companies. This includes companies like Google in the U.S., Oxford Quantum Circuits in the U.K., and Alice & Bob in France. Many of the components used to create qubits are the same as those for advanced chips (EUV-based). These are currently manufactured in France, Germany, the Netherlands, and the U.S. Additionally, quantum technology requires the use of cryogenic coolers, which are predominantly produced in the U.K. and the EU. Finally, highly specialized companies in Israel, Japan, Taiwan, the U.S., and the EU currently produce many of the control systems for quantum technology.
Research Collaborations are Linked to Geopolitical Alliances
The research and development of quantum technology is thus a complex and interconnected supply chain with many specialized companies involved. Therefore, coordinating research efforts in the future could yield significant efficiency gains.
That’s what DARPA tried to achieve up until January 20. However, StarGate opens up the possibility for the U.S. to gain the financial means to dominate the development of both AI and quantum computers. With Softbank chosen as a financial anchor, Trump may be signaling that other countries could play key roles.
The question, then, is whether StarGate can attract all the researchers needed to become globally leading in all areas of AI or if the U.S. will have to continue accepting that some other countries lead in key areas. In other words, will the new Trump administration see the same benefits from specialized research collaborations with allied nations as the Biden administration did?
The answer will depend on Big Tech’s stance. Leaders from Big Tech are widely and deeply represented in the new government and advisory bodies.
Click here for the two previous blog posts on AI and geopolitics: https://kraftscharling.dk/ai-chips-er-usas-geopolitiske-redskab/ as well as https://kraftscharling.dk/salget-af-ai-chips-begraenses-til-naere-allierede/
