AI will advance significantly when quantum computers approach commercial launches. There is a growing need for this, as mentioned in the previous blog post..
Quantum Computers Will Multiply Computational Power Exponentially
When Moore’s Law of doubling computational power every 18 months is suddenly replaced by a technology where the first commercial computer could, for example, multiply computational power by 10,000, new research opportunities emerge.
- Today’s computers work with binary outputs, i.e., one transistor and thus one electron at a time.
- In contrast, a quantum can exist in multiple places simultaneously and can also connect with other qubits. This means that computational power theoretically increases by 2 raised to the power of the number of qubits in the computer.
- Test computers at IBM have, at times, provided up to 100 billion times greater computational power than the largest supercomputers today. Other systems are planned to handle up to 1 million qubits simultaneously.
- Additionally, due to “entanglement,” quantum computers can solve problems that current computers will never be able to tackle, especially in cryptography.
The potential of this is staggering...
This computational power enables a fundamentally new research approach. Currently, research typically involves a scientist formulating specific hypotheses which are then tested. Quantum computers enable the opposite approach: searching in (very) big data to find multidimensional and even conditional correlations. This can then generate the hypotheses. Future research management will thus increasingly require the courage to interpret new fundamental understandings of natural logic, rather than merely seeking new knowledge ("Sapere Aude").
It is impossible to predict the breakthroughs we will witness. On one hand, we often overestimate how straightforward it will be to achieve new insights each time we see breakthroughs in fundamental research or new “enabling” technologies. Conversely, there are far more potential research breakthroughs than there are known problems, especially because the approach to research can be turned on its head, as mentioned above.
According to Ivan Ostojic (McKinsey), areas such as chemistry, medicine, pharmaceuticals, and cybersecurity will be the first and greatest beneficiaries of quantum computers.
- Two of the biggest discoveries in medicine over the past 150 years have been antibiotics and vaccines.
- However, new antibiotics are mostly found through trial and error.
- Moreover, vaccines “only” stimulate humans to produce antibodies. Vaccines cannot be developed in advance. The speed of vaccine development is crucial during epidemics.
- In both cases, there is a lack of fundamental understanding at the molecular level of the connections involved.
… and this is necessary for the fundamental breakthroughs we seek
Among the breakthroughs we currently seek, the following are particularly noteworthy:
- Artificial Photosynthesis: The leaves of trees are the most efficient carbon capture technology available, and carbon capture is the Achilles' heel of keeping global warming below 2.5 degrees. A large portion of the already emitted CO2 in the atmosphere needs to be returned to the ground, preferably via plant roots. Additionally, photosynthesis is the most efficient way to split hydrogen. Green hydrogen is a “blue ocean” for climate transitions.
- Photosynthesis occurs when photons strike chlorophyll, which absorbs red and blue light but not green. These reactions produce energy carriers (Calvin cycle) that absorb CO2 and form organic compounds like glucose.
- Photosynthesis happens at the quantum level, and its complexity is a major reason we do not understand how plant photosynthesis practically works.
- Artificial photosynthesis will impact carbon capture technologies and thus the climate, but it could also increase crop yields, such as for rice and wheat, and enhance resilience to climate change.
- Finally, understanding photosynthesis could increase solar cell efficiency to up to 90%, compared to today’s maximum of 10-16%.
- Artificial DNA Strands (including CRISPR): For example, increasing crop yields and creating natural resistance. This is necessary because global warming is reducing the amount of land available for agriculture.
- CRISPR should also help with cancer, i.e., by slowing down degeneration in cell division.
- Additionally, it should open up possibilities for alleviating genetic diseases like Downs or Huntington’s.
But are our insights still limited by the range of our senses?
Ultimately, the “reverse research approach” will challenge the classical research problem, namely that our understanding is limited by our senses. Philosopher George Berkeley, for example, believed that objects only exist if they are observed (“to be is to be perceived”). Thus, reality is a human construct, or as John Keats put it: “Nothing ever becomes real till it is experienced.” Niels Bohr used the words: “Physics is not about the world, but about what we can say about it.”
Just because we cannot see something does not mean we can dismiss its existence. The majority of the universe, for example, consists of dark energy and dark matter. We call it dark because we cannot see it. But we can calculate that it must be there.