Indias and Chinas geopolitical relations also involve Kashmir, which supplies 90% of Pakistan's freshwater and contains significant Lithium deposits.
Three Countries Lay Claim to Kashmir
In September this year, elections were held in the Indian province of Jammu and Kashmir. It was the first time since Narendra Modi revoked the province's semi-autonomous status five years ago. The election results gave the opposition a narrow majority. The opposition includes the Indian National Congress, led by Rahul Gandhi.
Both India and Pakistan consider the Kashmir Valley as part of their countries, with each controlling a portion of the region. Additionally, China controls the easternmost part of Kashmir, Aksai Chin.
The dispute between India and Pakistan dates back to the partition of India in 1947, when Maharaja Hari Singh initially sought to make Kashmir an independent state. However, he ultimately joined India after Pakistan supported militant forces that invaded the region. Pakistan's claim to the province is still based on the fact that the majority of the region's population is Muslim. Aksai Chin is vital to China as it connects Tibet to the Chinese province of Xinjiang.
Kashmir's water and lithium
In the Kashmir Valley, several smaller rivers converge to form the Indus. which flows into Pakistan. The Indus River supplies 90% of Pakistan's freshwater, including for agriculture, as well as about half of the freshwater supply to northwestern India.
But the Jammu and Kashmir province is contested for more reasons. In southwestern Kashmir lies the town of Reasi, where in 1997 large deposits of at least 5.9 million tons of lithium were discovered, valued at $410 billion USD. In theory, this makes India the country with the seventh-largest lithium reserves in the world, after Bolivia, Argentina, the USA, Chile, Australia, and China. The discovery is strategically important for India, which is currently dependent on lithium-ion battery technologies imported from China. Over the past 10 years, India's imports of these technologies have increased 30-fold.
However, the Reasi deposits are expected to take another 5-10 years to be fully explored. The reserves could be larger, but they might also prove too expensive to extract. Still, $400 billion USD is a significant sum.
Water Brings Life and Power
Pakistan is very aware of its dependence on water from the Indus River. In 1960, the two countries signed the Indus Waters Treaty, which regulates the use of the Indus river system. However, the treaty does not prohibit the construction of dams for hydropower projects, nor does the UN’s convention "on the Law of the Non-Navigational Uses of International Watercourses."
In recent years, India has initiated several major hydropower projects in Kashmir, including Kishanganga, Ratle, Pakal Dul, and Sawalkot. Thus, India holds potential geopolitical power over Pakistan, similar to Ethiopia's leverage over Sudan and Egypt (regarding the Nile).
China, however, supports Pakistan's protests against India's projects, perhaps because Pakistan is the largest borrower under China's Belt and Road Initiatibve.
It is fundamentally difficult to control or verify what happens in a neighboring country. When survival is threatened, conventions and agreements often become of secondary importance.
